Posts on November 3, 2008
Election Predictions!
Mood: nervous
Posted on 2008-11-03 09:43:00
Tags: election
Words: 168
Here are mine: feel free to post yours here!
- President: Obama wins Kerry states + IA NM CO VA NV OH for a total of 311-227 electoral votes. (here's a decent calculator to play with) This is a somewhat conservative estimate and I hope he breaks 330 EVs or so so it's not that close.
- Senate: Dems win new seats in VA NM CO AK NH OR NC for a total of 58. The GA race goes to a hotly-contested runoff.
- House: Um, I dunno, Dems gain 25 seats.
- California's Prop 8 fails but it's very very close.
Mostly just guessing on these with a slight pessimistic edge.
An interesting video about voting dirty tricks from the Obama campaign, although it's weak on actual advice.
A reminder: exit polls will be leaked tomorrow during the day. They will be partial numbers and very unreliable (they showed Kerry winning in 2004). I don't think I'm gonna be able to stop myself from looking at them (numbers!!) but they're pretty meaningless.
more election stuff (surprised?)
Mood: busy
Posted on 2008-11-03 13:52:00
Tags: election links
Words: 62
John McCain was on SNL on Saturday - here's clip #1 and clip #2. I thought they were pretty funny. For balance, here's a Keith Olbermann sketch.
Although the final numbers still aren't in, early voting in Texas was up a lot, up more than one million from 2004.
Nate Silver's (guy behind fivethirtyeight.com) guide on what to watch for on election night.
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